Daily Ag Direction 7/16/24
Good Morning!
The levee is at risk of breaking on wheat here in the short-term. A month of wishful thinking has culminated in a new contract low that broke support set back in March. From here the market will look back to December of 2020 near the $5.30 level and August of 2020 at roughly $4.05/bu. Today the market is well off the low, trading at $5.52 vs. the low at $5.46/bu. If the market can hold and corn trades higher we can breath easier, but the leak in the boat is not going to fix itself. The Russian crop is getting bigger the big US crop does not offer support. Exports are going to continue to be a problem as Russia was the cheapest offer for the Egyptian tender at $226/MT fob. Corn is recovering after a rough start to the week. Cooler weather forecasts will coincide with pollination in the corn belt which will do nothing to provide prospects of a lower USDA yield estimate for the time being. Soybeans are up similar to corn percentage wise but overall it still feels like bearish undertones here. Reports of big crops in Missouri and favorable forecasts overall for the rest of the country. The difficulty in marketing now is recognizing what any potential rally might accomplish and expectations of price will likely be forced down for a nearby marketing window.
Sept ’24 KC Wheat –3.5 @ $5.52
July ’25 KC Wheat -4.4 @ $5.93
Sept Corn +6.0 @ $3.97
Dec Corn +5.0 @ $4.10
Aug Beans +12.5 @ $10.91
Nov Beans +5 @ $10.73
Sept Feeders -0.050 @ $258.850
Oct. Live 0.000 @ $183.800
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!