Daily Ag Direction 8/13/24
Good Morning!
The August WASDE is behind us and we learned some interesting things about USDA’s thoughts on this corn crop. After making new contract lows markets responded favorably and closed near session highs. The USDA bumped yield 2.1 bu. to 183.1 bu./acre which, on the surface, seemed like would make for a negative report. However, harvested acres decreased by 750,000 acres and demand increased to keep carryout at bay. Big yield numbers out of Illinois (225) and Indiana and Iowa posting +200 numbers as well. Global production numbers declined helping to save the day on what could have been ugly trade for the farmer. Brazil’s second corn crop is progressing rapidly under drought conditions. Soybeans did not have a good day. Yield increased 1.2 bu. to 53.2 bu./acre and demand remaining flat. South America continues to get the lion’s share of OND demand which would typically come from the U.S. and crush cannot be increased much more. In wheat, the Egyptian tender fell flat purchasing 280k mt vs the 3.8 mmt they tendered for. That wheat will come from Ukraine and Bulgaria. Paris wheat reacted negatively and futures at home are feeling the pressure. U.S. wheat production fell slightly on the WASDE and carryout decreased by 26 million bu. Compare that to total carryout at 800 million bu., there is still plenty to weigh on the market. The U.S. is getting closer to finding export demand but is still out of the money at the moment.
Sept ’24 KC Wheat -3.0 @ $5.45
July ’25 KC Wheat -4.4 @ $5.83
Sept Corn -4.6 @ $3.79
Dec Corn -4.0 @ $3.98
Sept Beans -19.0 @ $9.52
Nov Beans -18.0 @ $9.68
Sept Feeders -0.100 @ $239.400
Oct. Live +0.475 @ $180.500
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!