Are Funds moving the grain and livestock markets?   

Oliver Sloup joined RFD-TV on Monday to discuss the recent price action and Fund positioning.

Soybeans

Monday’s Recap
Jan Soybean futures settled at 1009’6 Monday, higher by 11’2, or 1.13%. Overall, a light 182,847 contracts were traded, with 107,221 done in Jan. Combined open interest increased 4,118, or 0.46%, with Jan down 486 (0.14%) to 356,174.

Technicals
January soybeans were able to stage an impressive comeback yesterday after defending the lows from last Thursday and Friday. As mentioned in our interview with RFD-TV yesterday, the 970-980 has been acting as a value zone for several months and we feel that could continue to be the case into what is a seasonally friendly time of year. On the resistance side of things, 1018-1024 3/4 is the pocket the Bulls want to chew through. If they can achieve this, we could see a swift move higher towards 1049-1052 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1018-1024 3/4, 1049-1052 1/2
Pivot: 995 3/4-1002 1/2
Support: 986 1/4-987 1/4. 977 1/4-980 3/4 973 1/2**

Fundamental Notes
Monday Morning Flash Sales

• 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to India during the 2024/2025 marketing year
• 261,264 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year
• 135,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2024/2025 marketing year

Weekly Export Inspections

2,165,075 MT, within the range of expectations. China was the top destination accounting for about 1.39mmt.

Popular Options

Option trading centered around the Dec 1020 calls with 3,824 done and the Dec 980 puts with volume of 2,775. For Jan options, the 1020 calls were the most actively traded with 1,382 changing hands, and the high volume put was the 950 strike with 1,499 contracts done. Option open interest is highest for the March 1100 calls at 15,844, and the March 980 puts at 23,306.

Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility ended slightly up, gaining 0.19 to close the session at 19.04. Losing 0.38%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) settled at 14.89%. The SVL Skew finished slightly higher, up by 0.19 to close the session at -0.14, a one week high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.18.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update

(Updated on 11.18.24)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 16.6k contracts, which puts them net short 39,701 contracts.  The last time Funds held a net long position was last December. 

Want to read the full report?

Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox. 

Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.